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One of the communication industry depth reports: the performance of 4G series inversion helps to repair valuation, and transmission network is the most flexibly

In 2013, the construction of mobile 4G, transmission network investment increased 50%.

(1) 4G as the next generation of communication technology, has been widely used in the world, is expected to domestic 4G licenses will be issued in the 13 year the second half of the year, but the move will advance the construction at the beginning of the year.
(2) expected 13 years domestic operators in total investment growth of 10%, the transmission network is the fastest growing segment, the growth rate up to 50%, and the wireless network and broadband access investment flat.

The industry benefits of 3G construction in 2009.

(1) 3G investment starts in 2009. Wireless network investment growth 101%, transmission network investment growth 17%, 3% growth in investment in broadband access.

(2) In 2009, net profit growth is the highest industry: fiber optic cable (YoY101%, fiber volume and price Qi Sheng), broadband access device (YoY134%, 3G investment benefit overflow), network optimization (YoY118%, benefit from the high growth wireless investment).

(3) In 2009, weak performance is the optical network devices and wireless network device manufacturers, the reason is from the customer and competitor price pressure, as well as indirect export ratio is relatively high.

The industry boom analyses of 4G construction in 2013.

(1) The 2013 estimation of leading industries in 2009:

A) optical fiber cable, though not price again, but the demand by the transmission network pull the obvious, enough to digest the manufacturer's capacity expansion, is expected to increase the price level, performance is more than 12 years greatly improved; b) broadband access equipment, continue to benefit from the spillover of 4G investment (and low price competition and the old site of Huawei, ZTE from saving engineering cost); c) network testing optimization, demand is expected to moderate growth, the reason is the wireless network investment growth rate is not high, but 4G is not officially licensed, no user load, reduce network optimization pressure test.

(2) the other is expected to 13 years of high growth sub-sectors: a) transmission network equipment, benefit transmission network investment increases, and are expanding order, wool interest rate is no pressure; b) network engineering, 4G base station density driven demand growth; c) network design, 4G needs or indirect positive private design institute.

Results are expected to reverse bring valuation of repair, increase industry rating to "good".

(1) 10~12 communications equipment industry performance continued to deteriorate, fall into the bottom plate valuation.

(2) In 2013, pulling 4G operators investment rebound, especially the transmission network investment is expected to increase 50%, communications equipment industry performance will be generally improved in 2013.

(3) It is expected to be positive information will promote the industry valuation repair, the industry as a whole PE back to 32 times the historical average (currently 19 times), underestimate the optical fiber and cable PE value will also return to the historical average of 22 times (the current 15 times), raise industry rating to "good".

It is can be recommended that "Undervalued" + "transmission net benefit": optical fiber and cable, transmission network, broadband access equipment.

(1) In the 50% investment growth of transmission network and Industry Valuation repair under the expected, we find along the "undervalued" and "transmission net benefit" two directions of investment subject.

(2) Its recommended the following three directions: a) the lowest valuation, investment benefit transmission network of optical fiber and cable, the subject: Tongding photoelectric, Zhongtian Technology, optoelectronics Hengtong: b), the most benefit to underestimate the value of transmission network equipment, investment in transmission network subject: Fiberhome communications; c), the expected difference to underestimate the value of (the market has not fully aware of the spillover of 4G investment) broadband access equipment, the subject: day sea communication, Xin yi.

                                                                               Reported by Shenyin Wanguo Securities

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